BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – President Trump headed home Friday after a whirlwind four-day tour of the Persian Gulf that featured multibillion-dollar deals, an unprecedented AI data partnership, and some unexpected diplomatic developments as well. The overall White House message appeared to be a policy of pragmatism and transactional relationships in the Middle East – all the while touting the oil-rich nations of the region as models of success.
Trump said the deals announced during the visit would help the U.S. economy, and that he was ending an era of U.S. “interventionism” in the region – an approach that appeared evident in his rapprochement with the new leader of Syria, and his negotiations for a new Iran nuclear deal and an end to the war in Gaza.
The trip produced a dizzying array of headlines and announcements – and perhaps not surprisingly, a range of views as to what mattered most from the President’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The Cipher Brief gathered reflections on the trip from experts with deep experience in the region: former White House Special Mideast Coordinator Dennis Ross; former Acting CIA Director John McLaughlin; former U.S. Ambassador to Oman Gary Grappo; former CIA Associate Director for Operations Paula Doyle; and Chair of the Department of Regional and Analytical Studies at the National Defense University Hassan Abbas.
We asked each of them for what they saw as the key takeaways – and their answers included the recognition of the new Syrian leader; a perceived snub of Israel; the business deals and the AI projects; and the impact for the three Gulf states President Trump visited – the “big winners,” as Ambassador Grappo put it – in an eventful week of presidential travel.
THE CONTEXT
- President Trump signed a $600 billion "strategic economic partnership" agreement with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which the White House said would involve a $142 billion arms deal, Saudi investments in American AI data centers and energy infrastructure, and more.
- The White House announced a $1.2 trillion "economic exchange" with Qatar that included the purchase of 210 Boeing jets by Qatar Airways for $96 billion, as well as energy infrastructure agreements.
- The president also announced $200 billion "in commercial deals" between the U.S. and the UAE.
- According to the New York Times and other outlets, some of the details of the deals were either overstated or lacked detail. In some cases the claims involved agreements reached before Trump took office.
- The Trump Administration announced a major new joint AI initiative with the UAE, an upgrade to an existing “U.S.-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership” that will bring American-made A.I. chips to a UAE campus and constitute the largest such project outside of the United States. Some AI experts said the venture may present national security risks for the U.S.; the White House said those risks were unfounded.
- President Trump agreed to lift longstanding U.S. sanctions against Syria and to meet its new leader, the one-time jihadist and rebel commander Ahmed Al-Sharaa. Trump met Al-Sharaa at the behest of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS).
- Israeli government officials were reportedly concerned over the Trump administration’s refusal to include a Jerusalem stop in the president’s tour – particularly in the wake of U.S. decisions involving Iran, the Houthis and Hamas that have been taken without consulting Israel.
I think Trump’s lifting of sanctions on Syria is a smart gamble. Syria sits at the middle of all the Mideast turmoil, and the benefits of a stable, peaceful Syria could be enormous – after a dozen years of war and 40-plus years of brutal dictatorship. It could lead to the return of refugees, the more complete integration of the Kurdish SDF [Syrian Democratic Forces], and in the longer term an easing of the tensions between Sunnis and Alawites (the underlying cause of the Syrian civil war). Not to mention, peace on one of Israel’s borders – and those of Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey.
But it is nonetheless a gamble, because of Al-Sharaa’s only recent conversion from terrorist leader to president, and because of the continuing Russian presence in Syria, and uncertainty about Damascus’s relationship with Iran. But a gamble worth taking.
The AI deals are harder to assess. On the one hand, it makes sense to encourage the modernization of Gulf monarchies and their movement away from petrol economies. And there is a big investment dividend here for U.S. companies. On the other hand, there’s no way to ensure that this technology does not end up in China’s hands. China now has more than a dozen BRI [Belt and Road Initiative] projects, and at least that many port projects in the Middle East – and recall their role in negotiating a soft rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. So this too is a gamble. Maybe it’s worth taking, but I’d like to see some guardrails and controls to make sure the AI tech (mainly high-end chips) does not fall into the wrong hands. And I’m skeptical this can be designed with confidence.
The budding Iran deal seems so far like an encore of the Obama-era deal that Trump blew up in 2018, with all kinds of demands for more Iranian concessions. But Iran is a lot weaker now and its economy more stressed, so maybe that’s enough to satisfy Trump. I suspect his main goal is to avoid war with Iran and just get this off his plate, so that the administration has more flexibility to focus on Asia.
This was not your traditional presidential trip. President Trump is not your traditional president and this was not a trip about the geopolitics of the region, [and] not a trip about a new security architecture for the region. This was a trip about the American economy and how investments are going to be made in this country by sovereign wealth funds or companies from the region. From the standpoint of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, they see what they're doing right now as building a stake in the Trump administration. He sees American business benefiting from these big deals – big defense-related contracts, Boeing aircraft being bought, investments in data centers here, investments in chip development there.
This is all part of Donald Trump's worldview, and there's an understanding by these leaders that this is a way to build the American stake in [their countries]. They may not get formal defense treaties, but they can cement the relationship in a way where we have a real stake in their wellbeing and their security.
We're not seeing an end to the war in Gaza, and that means there'll be no Saudi normalization anytime soon. I was struck by the President's comment that while he really wants to see that, his language was, the Saudis will do it “in their time,” and when I hear anyone in the region say do it “in their” time, that tells me not soon. I do think that at some point, President Trump's patience for what's going on in Gaza will wear thin and we'll see him move to say, OK, this is what's going to happen now, and I have a hard time seeing Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu saying no to him.
The Israelis are learning that President Trump is going to do what he decides is in our interests – we've seen a pattern recently that we'll do what we want, and it doesn't necessarily mean we feel their interests have to be taken into account.
The Trump administration did a deal with the Houthis a day after the Houthis had a ballistic missile that hit near Ben Gurion Airport, which led foreign airlines to suspend operations there. There have been continuing Houthi attacks against Israel since that time. So with regard to the Houthis, President Trump did what he saw as being in our interest, certainly not Israel's. The Israelis found out about [the Trump administration’s dialogue with Hamas] through their own intelligence. Prime Minister Netanyahu learned the direct talks were going to begin with Iran only when he was in the Oval Office, when the president announced it.
Now, does that mean there isn't a [U.S.] commitment to Israel? No. It just means that this administration is going to do what the President decides is in his interest. He will not feel duty bound to have to let the Israelis know in advance that this is what we're doing.
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First and foremost, President Trump is trying to recreate the Middle East in so many ways, and emphasize this business-to-business thinking, and that this progress will lead to a new relationship. Because we know that some of the Middle Eastern countries have been – if not leaning, have been doing some outreach with China. Whereas the old historical relationships of the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and of course the UAE, are with the U.S. So it's a reframing of the situation, with a goal of progress and development there, in a way that these countries will become U.S. partners in resolving the Israel-Palestine issue.
Linked to that is Syria – getting Al-Sharaa there, saying that there'll be no sanctions, and giving a new lease on life to Syria. We have known he was involved with Al-Qaeda and other groups. He was a terrorist, but he's a reformed man now. We really would like to believe he's a changed man. Syria is one of the most important Arab countries from a historical point of view – and if we are able to rebuild Syria, that will be huge.
And last but not least, I think the resurgence of Qatar into the limelight is important. There was a time not long ago when there were challenges. Qatar was being pressed – Why are you hosting the Taliban? And Hamas? Of course they were doing it because we in the U.S. wanted them to do it, in the sense that there should be a country and space where we can talk to the people who are our adversaries. And Qatar did a great job with that, from what every leading politician and senior defense official will say. What I've heard is that Qatar has played a positive role and their collaboration with the U.S. was important. So [the Trump administration] recognizing that, going to all three countries, I think was a very smart move.
It seemed to be mostly about investment and big contracts. I think the figures mentioned by Trump are exaggerated. I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that the Gulf States are investing anything close to "trillions." Collectively perhaps, but no single country seemed willing to go that far and probably lacks the capability at present, given the current low oil prices.
On the political front, certainly the kingdom [of Saudi Arabia], Qatar and the UAE come off as big winners with their reputations on the global stage significantly enhanced. That's a big win for them and their longer term strategies to become global players economically and politically.
They all got a huge gift with Trump's decision to lift sanctions on Syria and meet with Al-Sharaa. He has major challenges in dealing with the centrifugal forces of sectarian rivalries in his country, but this may help things. Unless he can get a grip on matters, however – violence against the Druze, Alawites and Christians – lifting sanctions won't count for much. The ideologies of these groups drive so much of what they do and how they behave.
The big loser in the visit is Israel. They can't be very happy that they were bypassed by Trump, despite efforts to persuade Trump to make a stop in Jerusalem. The ceasefire in Yemen with the Houthis, which does not apply to Israel, is another cause for alarm in Jerusalem. Moreover, lifting sanctions on Syria as Israel casts a very wary eye on its northeastern neighbor is more bad news for Jerusalem. And the apparent good vibes sounded on the Iran nuclear talks — though I'm less convinced of this happy talk — will have definitely unsettled Netanyahu and the Israeli leadership. If there was anything in this trip for Israel, I don't see it. They'll be very concerned about where they stand these days with the U.S., and specifically Bibi with Donald Trump.
Palestinians and especially the people of Gaza must be disappointed there was no apparent breakthrough on a ceasefire there. One wonders how much the president is now engaged, and if that's been relegated to the "too hard for now" category.
Finally, reactions seem to be growing against the president and the Qatari "donation" of a new Boeing aircraft to him. It grates against so many Americans, regardless of whether they're Trump supporters. I would not be surprised if this deal slowly goes away.
I am still not sanguine about the wisdom of putting a former al-Qaeda terrorist in charge of Damascus, but as my Syrian expat friends say, “Assad was much worse, and we want to go home.” For Syrians who have lived in exile and as refugees since the civil war that began in 2011, the new ruler’s affiliation with al-Qaeda is all relative.
I believe Washington’s 120-day approach that sets specific conditions for lifting sanctions against Syria is a winning strategy. It puts the new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the rebel group he led, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), on notice that U.S. oversight mechanisms are in place and that Washington will quickly snap sanctions back in place if Syrian behaviors are not consistent with U.S. interests.
Second, millions of Syrians want to return to their homes, but in all too many cases, Assad, Russia, and Iran destroyed their homes and business. I have watched the Turks rebuild after devastating earthquakes. I believe no one in the region can help Syria rebuild faster than the people of Turkey. Washington's 120-day sanctions-relief shot clock will give Turkish construction companies a much-needed infusion of money for reconstruction teams to quickly deploy to Syria - especially to war-torn Aleppo, Homs, and to regions hit hard by the 2023 earthquake.
Finally, there are implications of the new U.S. policy toward Syria that may impact other parts of the world. The paths to peace in Ukraine and to the throttling of Iran’s nuclear ambitions quickly shifted after Assad’s ouster, when Russia and Iran withdrew from Syria in December 2024. Washington's 120-day sanctions-lifting timetable needs to reinforce American strength and commitment in public messaging not only to Syria, but also to Turkey, the Gulf States, and the Black Sea Region. We need to keep saying and reminding the world that the Russian-Iranian alliance that ravaged Syrian civilians ended in defeat; that the Russian-Iranian alliance that has waged an unprovoked war against Ukraine has turned the world against them and gotten them nowhere; and that the Russian-Iranian alliance that has repeatedly attacked the U.S. and our allies via Hezbollah, Hamas, Khatib Hezbollah, and the Houthis has utterly destroyed Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, and Yemen. Russia and Iran dug their heels into the Road to Damascus in 2015 and they failed. And now, in a great twist of fate, the new roads to peace from the Black Sea to the Persian Gulf may run through Damascus as well.
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